February 11, 2011 §
Mary Meeker, formerly with Morgan Stanley, and now a partner at Kleiner Perkins, enjoys heavy praise each time she puts out one of her “state of the digital economy” Powerpoint decks. I’m not quite ready to jump on that bandwagon. Don’t get me wrong … I love having access to all that rich information in one, convenient place. But these presentations (often 50+ pages) are heavy on charts that illustrate the past, and light on analysis that anticipates the future. In her latest deck, you have to wade through 22 slides before arriving at one with original content (from KP’s portfolio companies) — all the prior slides, and most of those that follow, regurgitate data from 3rd party sources.
Mary Meeker, Internet trends (February, 2011)
Ms. Meeker compiles tons of interesting data to tell an articulate story of what’s already happening out there, but what I’d really like to see from her and her obviously talented team, are the implications. How will these trends, such as the rapid rise in smartphone penetration, impact our economy, how we do business, or how we function in our daily lives? Based on the trends she reports, here are some of the questions that need answering:
- Will closed systems (like Apple’s) and open systems (like Google/Android’s and Microsoft’s) continue to co-exist, or will Apple eventually fall, like it did in the first PC era?
- Are the people who buy iOS devices vs. Android vs. Windows Phone really that different? And what does this mean for development and marketing strategies?
- Will yesterday’s deal between Microsoft and Nokia be enough to save either company’s mobile business?
- Will there be a shift in focus from app quantity to app quality? In a market with 100s of thousands of choices (and counting), how will new publishers and developers break in? Will the discouraging odds of getting noticed drive would-be app developers to other platforms?
- Will the emerging dominance of mobile computing cause new businesses and business models to optimize first for mobile (rather than first for PC, which is typical now)? What are these businesses likely to be?
- How can domestic companies compete with international competitors, particularly in markets with greater long term upside than in the U.S. (Brazil, China, India)?
- Is Facebook becoming like AIG … getting too big and central to fail?
- Is the social aspect of social networking just a fad? Will the focus of social platforms be entirely different 5 to 10 years from now, i.e., a bigger, broader purpose?
- Is the longevity of today’s stars such as Groupon and Zynga determined mainly by their latest innovations, or have they created sustainable, defensible models worthy of continued investment? Will these companies become platforms on which entire ecosystems can be built, creating opportunities for new businesses and consumer benefit?
- What will be the next significant consumer or B2B behaviors to be disintermediated by mobile?
- Will mobile users tolerate mobile advertising, and does it depend on format? Will mobile advertising be effective? If the answer to either of these questions is “no”, what business models will justify additional investment?
- Are there any limits to what people will purchase on a mobile device (mcommerce)?
Of course there are countless other questions one could ask. Now that Meeker has broadened her scope from market analyst to business builder, I hope she will see fit to take her presentations to the next level. But Mary, if you’re listening, can you try to keep it under 60 or 70 pages? 😉